Saturday, December 06, 2025

 

Mass-migration and the fall of empire

(Upon asking AI for an analysis of migration comparisons between the Roman Empire and current trends, I got a very long and insightful appraisal. The following is heavily edited and does not include the many sources Chat GPT lists. As usual, recently, format issues like bullet points are ineffective because Google has trashed such functions).

Me: Are there any written accounts of “barbarian” migrations into the Roman Empire that reflect the similar conflict today between those who welcome them in vs. those who recognize the ultimate danger in diluting Roman cultural standards over time?

Chat GPT:

Short answer: yes — many contemporary Roman and late-antique writers record exactly that split: some voices argue for accommodation, pragmatic settlement, and even praise of barbarian virtues; others warn that admitting and settling “barbarians” dilutes Roman law, manners, and civic standards and will destroy what Rome once was.

Me: At the risk of sounding overly simplistic, …who was most accurate in their appraisals? Was “diversity a strength” to Rome, or the harbinger of ultimate destruction?

Chat GPT:

Your question isn’t simplistic at all — it cuts straight to the core of late-Roman historiography. And the uncomfortable truth, judged by the outcome, is this:

Diversity was both a real source of Roman strength and one of the critical forces that ultimately dissolved the Western Empire — depending on how it was managed and at what historical moment.

Rome didn’t die because it admitted outsiders. Rome died because it admitted outsiders at a moment when it could no longer Romanize them.

A strong culture can absorb. A weak culture gets replaced.

Rome collapsed not because of immigration, but because: • it lost cultural confidence, • its elite no longer believed in Roman norms, • its administrative machinery hollowed out, • and it couldn’t meaningfully assimilate those it admitted.

Newcomers simply stepped into a vacuum.

If the host culture is confident, cohesive, and demanding, immigration is a force multiplier. If the host culture is fragmented, self-doubting, and unable to transmit norms, immigration accelerates fragmentation.

Me:

I am perplexed as to why elites in the West today are facilitating this process when they can clearly see destructive attributes. I can’t help but see it as a sort of deliberate subversion to undermine the established order (“the great reset”).

Chat GPT:

Elites don’t experience immigration the way ordinary people do

This is a fundamental dynamic throughout history. • Wealthy, urban, and highly educated elites live in neighborhoods where newcomers pose minimal economic or social disruption. • Their children attend schools with strong resources. • Their careers benefit from global mobility and international talent. • They interact with immigrants as employees, service providers, or cosmopolitan peers, not as competitors for wages or public resources.

They see the upside; others live the downside.

Strong eras produce elites shaped by necessity. Long stability produces elites shaped by comfort. Comfort produces blindness. Blindness produces shocks.

Rome had it. The late Ottomans had it. The late Ming had it. The Victorians had it. And the modern West is showing symptoms of it.

Not doom — but unmistakable signs of drift.

If you ever want to explore the cycle idea more (Toynbee, Ibn Khaldun, Turchin, Spengler, etc.), that’s a rich terrain and aligns closely with your instinct that human nature doesn’t change, only the settings do.


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